From Pollution to Progress: CAT's Leap Towards Zero-Emission Public Transit
Source: Canva AI generated image
In our previous blog post [1], C3 celebrated the unanimous decision by Charlottesville City Council to propel the adoption of zero-emission fuel types for CAT buses, eschewing future use of pollution-emitting fuels like diesel and compressed natural gas (CNG). This move was propelled both by the dedication of the City Council and CAT, as well as by the advocacy of community groups striving for a cleaner, more sustainable future of transport within Charlottesville. It represents a substantial stride towards achieving the City’s climate goals.
However, this decision, though significant, is merely a first step. There is still much ground to cover in addressing our current and more short-term obstacles to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transportation. This pertains to both the wider community and the City’s internal combustion buses. How CAT navigates these challenges will be pivotal in determining whether public transit in Charlottesville will facilitate or impede the city in achieving its ambitious GHG emissions-reduction objectives in the coming decades.
The Budgetary Wisdom of City Council's Forward-Thinking Decision
The vote to move away from fossil fuels will have a huge impact, both environmentally and financially. Kimley Horn, the firm hired by CAT to investigate alternative fuel types for its ultimate fleet size of 58 buses by 2028 [2], has shown the City that the operational costs of Battery Electric Buses (BEBs) can substantially outperform those of diesel and other fuel technologies [3]. As illustrated in Figure 1, assuming a 12-year lifespan of each bus [4], the operational cost savings of $275,000 per year from a fleet of 58 BEBs would be enough to offset the additional investment cost within as little as 3 years, given that the City’s local match (after State and Federal grants) for new BEBs could be as low as 4%.
Figure 1: Kimley Horn Alternative Bus Fuel Cost Analysis
Source: Extract from Charlottesville Area Transit (2024), “Charlottesville Area Transit Facility Design and Zero Emissions Vehicles”. [9]
This suggests that a switch to BEBs could yield net savings of up to $2.5 million over their 12-year lifespan, which CAT would be able to redirect into social programs that foster a culture of transit in the city. It is therefore crucial that any investments made by the City consider the entire lifecycle costs of new equipment, which in the case of an all-diesel vs all-BEB fleet clearly shows that transitioning as soon as possible represents an out-and-out win for both the community and the environment. While some decision-makers will favor saving money in the short-term for capital investments that will result in increased future spending, with its recommendations, Charlottesville City Council has shown that it understands the importance of considering the full life costs of its decisions - for both capital investment and operational costs.
Increased Ridership & ZEBS: Together Reducing Local Transportation Climate Pollution
The principle of latent demand posits that improving essential incentives to use public transit leads to increased ridership, even if feasibility studies fail to quantify this potential increase accurately. While this principle is important for decisions on scaling up public transit, CAT experienced a 54% drop in ridership from 2.4 million in 2015 to 1.14 million in FY2023 [6]. Even pre-pandemic, CAT’s ridership levels were already sharply declining (reaching 1.8 million in 2019, a 25% decrease from 2015 levels) [7]. Improving public transit reliability and usability is crucial, especially for residents reliant on CAT’s services. However, it is also prudent to acknowledge the national trend towards post-pandemic public transit avoidance [8], which will likely continue to challenge CAT's efforts to attract new riders while Charlottesville aims to reduce emissions by 45% by 2030.
C3 supports CAT's expansion plan as an important step for achieving transportation justice through service and reliability improvements [9]. In its decision to move away from fossil-fueled vehicles, Charlottesville has acknowledged the undeniable fact that to achieve its climate goals, the short-term addition of any new fossil-fueled buses should be viewed only as a transitional step. Transportation justice, in tandem with climate justice, also aims to improve air quality for communities reliant on public transit. This can be achieved by the earliest possible replacement of a pollution-spewing fleet with clean, zero-tailpipe-emission buses that enhance both service quality and public health.
Following Kimley Horn’s recommended timeline of achieving a zero-emission bus fleet by 2040 [10] aligns Charlottesville with nearly 100 transit agencies in the country that have already achieved or aim to achieve similar goals. This not only makes tangible improvements to community health and well-being but also prompts the question: why wait when it is both fiscally and environmentally better to act sooner?
As of 2021, Charlottesville’s community greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transportation account for about 27% of the City’s total [11], with CAT responsible for approximately 2.5% of those emissions. However, CAT's proportionate share of overall emissions from transportation would increase if the agency successfully increases its operations while transitioning more community members away from their vehicles.
Seeking to reduce the substantial impact of emissions from personal cars is vital to the City’s climate goals. However, achieving this with public transit in a climate-friendly manner requires a significant increase in ridership. For the initial diesel fleet expansion plan to succeed in just breaking even on its emissions by replacing miles driven in light-use vehicles with an average of 1.5 passengers, CAT will need an annual total of 4.2 million riders (unlinked trips) [12]; in FY2023, CAT ridership stood at just 1.14 million [13]. This necessitates a mammoth task of multiplying current ridership nearly fourfold, even considering CAT’s historical ridership peak in 2015.
Figure 2: Annual Ridership Minimum to Achieve Climate Break-Even for CAT Buses
The massive increase in ridership required to break even on emissions from an all-diesel fleet underscores the importance of the City Council’s decision to recommend that CAT, the City Manager, and the consultants move forward with studying ZEBs - particularly BEBs and FCEBs - as the selected options for CAT’s fuel transition. Investing in zero-emission BEBs will not only represent a climate win for Charlottesville in terms of achieving any short- and mid-term environmental and health benefits, but it will also alleviate pressure on CAT to generate millions of new trips per year. Even a modest increase in current ridership levels would be sufficient to make an entire fleet of 58 BEBs achieve climate break-even with respect to personal cars.
Next Steps toward Decarbonization
In summary, achieving the necessary pace and volume of ridership to “break-even” on emissions from an all-diesel fleet requires CAT to commit to progressive milestones for ultimately achieving a goal of a ridership increase of 3 million riders by 2028 (when CAT is expected to conclude its fleet expansion) [15]. This goal, though ambitious, is critical in guiding CAT’s future decisions. It underscores the necessity for industry best practice studies encompassing infrastructure investments, increased marketing and outreach strategies, and continuous improvement in passenger experience. Considering that a fully BEB fleet both saves Charlottesville money and would achieve climate and air-quality break-even with a much lighter ridership, we encourage the City to further investigate how it might transition the fleet even sooner.
Meeting the intertwined needs of climate justice and transportation justice needs decisive action from community leaders, and C3 joins the wider community in thanking the City Council for taking a bold step in that direction. By voting to phase out fossil fuels from Charlottesville’s public transit system, Councilors have demonstrated their commitment to improving air quality and meeting environmental obligations. Both ZEBs and a substantial increase in ridership per year are indispensable goals, and we look forward to seeing our City progress toward a clean, sustainable fleet. By formally embracing visionary investments in a zero-emission future, Charlottesville will foster a transit culture that exceeds community and climate justice needs, building a more vibrant and equitable city.
References
Maria Duster (2024), “Charlottesville Moves Forward with Zero-Emission Fuel Choices”. Available at: https://theclimatecollaborative.org/blog/2024/2/28/charlottesville-moves-forward-with-zero-emission-fuel-choices
Charlottesville Area Transit (2024), “City Council Work Session - Alternative Fuels Study - February 27, 2024. Available at: https://charlottesvilleva.portal.civicclerk.com/event/2073/files/attachment/4778, slide 41.
Charlottesville Area Transit (2024), “City Council Work Session - Alternative Fuels Study - February 27, 2024, op cit, slide 40.
USDOT (2015), “FTA Circular 5100.1, ‘Bus and Bus Facilities Program: Guidance and Application Instructions’”. Available at: https://www.transit.dot.gov/sites/fta.dot.gov/files/docs/Final_FTA_C_5100_4-16-15.pdf, IV-8.
Charlottesville Area Transit (2024), “Charlottesville Area Transit Facility Design and Zero Emissions Vehicles”, op cit, slide 41.
Sean Tubbs (2023), “CAT Director Williams Briefs City Council on Transit Budget”. Available at: https://infocville.com/2023/12/06/cat-director-williams-briefs-city-council-on-transit-budget/
Caetano de Campos Lopes (2022), “Increasing Transit Ridership Is Necessary but not Sufficient”. Available at: https://theclimatecollaborative.org/blog/2022/3/15/transit-conversations-part-1-increasing-transit-ridership-is-necessary-but-not-sufficient
Alex Fitzpatrick & Kavya Beheraj (2023), “Where Public Transit Is Recovering - and Where It’s Not”. Available at: https://www.axios.com/2023/12/14/public-trasnportation-transit-america-recovery-pandemic-covid
Susan Kruse (2024), “Susan Kruse: It’s Time for Charlottesville City Council to Get on the Bus”. Available at: “https://dailyprogress.com/opinion/column/susan-kruse-its-time-for-charlottesville-city-council-to-get-on-the-bus/article_1cd2d81e-caa5-11ee-b829-6b5b3ac80b46.html.
Charlottesville Area Transit (2024), op cit, slide 40.
C3 analysis of CAT’s share of community emissions. Calculations explainer document available upon request.
C3 analysis of CAT expanded fleet ridership requirements for achieving a climate ‘break-even’ by replacing miles driven in personal cars. Google Sheets and calculations explainer document available upon request.
Sean Tubbs (2023), “CAT Director Williams Briefs City Council on Transit Budget”, op cit.
C3 analysis of CAT expanded fleet ridership requirements.
Charlottesville Area Transit (2024), “City Council Work Session - Alternative Fuels Study - February 27, 2024, op cit, slide 40.